Too Much Information

We are being lied to. I know it because sometimes it is just a matter of common sense, sometimes I know it because I am told two mutually exclusive truths, and sometimes I know it because Tony Blair's lips are moving (yeah, I know, joke). We are being lied to, I know it, but hardly ever do I know it because I know the what the truth actually is.

Last week twenty four people were arrested by armed police in the middle of the night, supposedly because they planned to blow up a number of aircraft. I don't know if I believe it. They have cried wolf too many times, Forest Gate, Stockwell, the Wood Green ricin plot (not much plot, no ricin), the red mercury plot (no plot, no such thing as red mercury), tanks at Heathrow just before the big anti-war march, a myriad of small but disturbing incidents. The overall impression is of a government all too ready to hype up the threat of terrorism yet somehow still miss the only two actual attacks. I take it back, the overall impression is of incompetence worsened by an eagerness to hype up the threat of terror.

Yes, I know, we only hear about the plots they did not foil. Except this is not true, they supposedly foiled a plot last Thursday and are shouting it from the hilltops. Even Gordon Brown got to steal some of the glory by freezing some bank accounts.

John Reid was on the news yesterday morning saying that four terrorist plots had been foiled in the last year, I've seen other figures bandied about, but where are the prosecutions, the deportations, the control orders, the press releases from the treasury. David Blunket, in interviews, maintains that the tanks at Heathrow were responding to a very real threat, yet we heard nothing more about it, are we to believe that some nutter still has a surface to air missile in his garage and three years after discovering he has it the police still haven't found him. Or was it all bollocks, and it just slipped their mind to tell us and put us at our ease.

So what is the truth. I don't know. But I do not believe in conspiracy theories. For the simple reason that I've never yet seen an organisation capable of organising one. I catch myself slipping into them at times (tanks at Heathrow just before the march), sometimes you see the opportunity and the motive all too clearly. But no, I don't believe in them. I believe our politicians are men just like the rest of us, with no fewer morals, and I believe they suffer the same problems we suffer, from the incompetence of others and the limits of their own competence. I believe that sometimes they give themselves problems too big to solve with the tools they have, and I believe they feel the wolf of an election and possible loss of power at their back all too keenly and are too quick to act when they would be wiser to wait. I believe, and this is important, that most of the bad they do, they do whilst trying to do good.

So where am I? Swimming in a sea of information, most of it questionable, trying to sift out some facts with little or no help from the mainstream media or a variety of heavily biased websites.

So what are the facts. Well a few stand out. There were no bombs, if there were they would be shouting about them, there were no tickets, if there were they would be shouting about them, in fact, I learn today, that most of those arrested did not even possess a passport. I know they do that fast track passport thing if you pay extra, but I would not call that an imminent threat. So all we are left with is a plot, they were supposedly under surveillance for over a year, surveillance is expensive, if there were no plot they would have given up so there was definitely a plot. But a plot can be just talking shit about how you're going to show them western imperialists, or it can be a well laid plan. As there were no flight numbers but there was a lot of money spent over a long time I think it's safe to assume that this plot was somewhere between the two. I wonder if that's enough to secure a conviction, it may be tricky.

So why jump into action. I've seen four competing theories so far.

1. There was an imminent threat just like they say there was. What? From people without a bomb.

2. It was a cynical PR exercise. I don't believe this, apart from anything else Tony Blair is on holiday and Gordon Brown grabbed the limelight. Plus I don't believe in conspiracies.

3. The Americans forced it. That was today's best anonymous briefing. Apparently some British official told NBC news that the Americans threatened to rendition one of the guys away if they didn't move and the British just couldn't stand to have a guy arrested where there was no due process. The PR timing fits better in the states but the story makes the teller sound too good so I am doubtful.

4. Two variations on the Pakistan arrests. Either the Pakistani's jumped the gun and arrested their guys before they were supposed to, forcing the British into action. Or the Pakistani's arrested their guy and he cracked under 'interrogation' and told them a load of horseshit he thought they wanted to hear. Both of these have the ring of truth, but I like the first one better, in my experience most unexplained acts are cock-ups.

So, unhappy, probably unpleasant, possibly murderous people, but no credible plot, yet they had their doors kicked in at two in the morning and their lives as free British citizens are effectively over (and it's worth remembering that the police generally cast their nets wide, and at least some of them will be innocent or mostly innocent). Meanwhile the rest of us can't take a bottle of water on an aeroplane, possibly ever again. Oh, and John Reid got to play with his threat warning thing, which was nice.

And what can we say for sure, well one thing's for absolutely certain, arrests or no arrests, we are, all of us, even those of us who fly to the states regularly, still far more likely to get run over by a bus than blown up by a Muslim.