The 'Ruby' and the threat it poses
I don't know how many of you have been following this story, but it doesn't seem to be getting the attention it deserves in the mainstream news. Nothing really current on the BBC News website, anyway. Yet one spokesperson, speaking to Andrew Marr on LBC, has said that this is as important and as 'potentially explosive' a story as the Russia-Ukraine war or the Israel-Gaza-Lebanon one.
The basic facts are that the Ruby, a Russian cargo ship, is currently stuck on the edge of the English Channel, about 15 miles off Margate in Kent. It has cracks in the hull and its rudder is damaged beyond use as a result of a grounding. It is under tow and wants to get to its original destination of Malta - but no one seems to want it in their waters because of the cargo it's carrying: 20,000 metric tons of ammonium nitrate fertiliser, which is highly-explosive. People may remember the Beirut explosion in 2020, where a warehouse storing ammonium nitrate caught fire, and the AN eventually exploded. The resulting blast devastated the city and was felt 150 miles away. It was recorded by the US as a 3.3 magnitude seismic event, and was one of the most powerful non-nuclear explosions in history... basically the equivalent of 1.1 kilotons of TNT.
The cargo of the Ruby is seven times the amount that was stored in that Beirut warehouse. So if that went up, you can imagine the consequences. But that's not all. Wrecked about a mile off the coast of Sheerness in the Thames estuary is the WW2 US munitions ship SS Richard Montgomery, packed with 1,400 tonnes of explosive materials. Expert advisors have always said that the explosives on board would remain stable providing the wreck remained undisturbed - which certainly wouldn't be the case if the Ruby went up. So the Montgomery would go up, too.
It seems to be a no-win situation that's developing. No one wants the ship, so it seems to have nowhere to go - but it looks like the plan is still to tow it down through the English Channel and around the Bay of Biscay towards its original destination. If, for whatever reason, it explodes in the Channel, the impact would be huge to all surrounding countries: Britain, France, Belgium, Spain, etc. That's before we even get to the resulting tsunami, and the disruption to one of the world's major shipping lanes. If it sinks, the environmental impact would be equally catastrophic.
Fair warning. This is a story to keep a very close eye on.
Here's the Andrew Marr piece, followed by a reminder of the Beirut explosion in 2020.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIFrVip_y0s&t=71s
Beirut:
I'd no idea, Harry. And I do read the news. Or thought I did.
You've really got to search around to find anything on it. I know a few people who live in Margate. Only one of them knew of the story, because of seeing mention on a 'local chatter' page on Facebook. If you Google it, of course, it'll come up. There have been suggestions that it's being kept quiet either because it could generate panic, or because it isn't deemed enough of a risk. After all, this stuff is transported around the world all the time. The problem here is that the ship is damaged and leaking... so no one wants to touch it because of the environmental/explosive risks. It'll do untold damage if it sinks with a full cargo. I checked on a maritime website, which keeps track of all shipping movement globally, and it's still stuck there on the rim of the English Channel, about 15 miles NNE of Margate. There are no details on the extent of the damage or the fire risk - and obviously fire is the main concern. I hear people say "Why can't they just tow it out into the middle of the ocean?" What... and then leave it? If it sinks - disaster, wherever it is. If it explodes in the middle of an ocean.... well... I don't think people are considering the enormous tsunami that would create. If the Beirut blast was felt 150 miles away, and this has seven times the explosive power....
Some plans have been mooted about sending several smaller cargo vessels to it to offload the cargo and make it safe, but how much of a job is that going to be in rough seas and with the type of equipment needed? I guess all we can do is wait and see... and hope.
Some others, by the way, are suggesting - because it's a Russian ship, and it set out from a Russian port - that Vladimir Putin may have some plans for it. I can see all kinds of theories spinning out of that! Crazy, maybe - but who knows? As the following article states (see link below): "Alongside its war against Ukraine, the Kremlin has long pursued an aggressive hybrid strategy aimed at spreading chaos and destabilization through disinformation, interference in elections, and support for anti-Western political parties. But there has been a substantial uptick in recent months, including serious acts of sabotage."
Here's a news feature from the Center for European Policy Analysis that gives a lot more information. It's 6 days old, but the 'Ruby' hasn't moved yet. https://cepa.org/article/floating-megabomb-heaves-to-near-the-english-coast/
"If 20,000 tons of ammonium nitrate were to detonate, it would obliterate the center of any port city — the blast would be equal to a third of the 1945 Hiroshima bomb."
And this from MSN: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/everything-we-know-about-the-russian-ship-stranded-off-kent-coast-15-miles-from-margate-and-carrying-20-tonnes-of-explosives/ar-AA1rqsKy
As of tonight, Saturday 5th October, Ruby is still at anchor 15 miles off Margate.
Keep me updated Harry. I can't see The Ruby moving. I don't know what the answer is, but I'm guessing somebody somewhere will need to take a huge bung to accept it.
A very huge bung, I think. It's stuck there - lord knows for how long. One thing's for certain. If it goes up, everyone on earth will know about it. The tsunami from the Montgomery alone will swamp London.
If the ship sinks it won't explode unless the ammonium nitrate is mixed with oil. NH4NO3 is super soluble in water and if it is packed in sacks it will slowly dissipate over many years. Dry, it is fairly stable as long as it doesn't get heated up or if there is a fire on the ship that gets into the hold. That said I can't blame countries for not wanting it because unloading the stuff would be the most risky part of getting it off the vessel. Great care and professional supervision would be necessary, (I have had to do this myself with nasty chemicals on docks although they were not potentially explosive). However in many countries I have a feeling this would be unlikely. Hence it should be sent to a country with excellent safety facilities.
BTW Ammonium Nitrate is so soluble in water it can cause it to freeze as the reaction in highly endothermic.
Also I believe the reason for the explosion in Beirut was due to neglect of badly stored and deteriorating packaging which had been left and ignored for years in a hot climate because nobody wanted to tackle the problem or people just forgot about it.