Marketing (ha ha)

I'm in the same boat as you (and everyone that publishes a book every five minutes on Amazon). The suggestion that you should pay to advertise seems counterintuitive. You may sell more books, but you lose money paying for advertising. And you don't know if you'd have sold more anyway? The obvious solution seems to be become more well known and marry a supermodel and then murder her. Or better still hold her to ransom and demand a million of your books be bought or she'll be set free. All those that have done the right things and imagined sales were locked away long ago. 

I can take a leap at this... but I'm not sure its what you & the readers here are looking for....

I'll explain.... In my past life, I worked in a financial services group, specializing in emerging markets. As it was being sliced-up and sold off, I & 2 close mates had a dream to write, one has a screen play, the other, a book on paying taxes the right way & avoid fines & jail, and then me = commercial fiction-attempt... The point is we, ripped and stripped the publishing industry, like doing due-dill on risk-analyst to find out how it works, where we might fit in, right down to the cost of goods sold & burn rates of publishers,  credit & cost there of , debt, agenting profiles++++. In summary, the industry- established business models are not what they seem, but function at a degree for the time being...

What we found was a series of - vertical markets, clusters, and emerging markets that do well.... including demographics, cultural appeal, etc.... If that appears interesting, I can crunch some of that into several paragraphs, with some key points in easy to read laymen terms, the best I can. And then readers can decide how to use it, or how bold they want to be in emerging markets & new platforms w/ a future snap shot.....(?)

In the sense, the perception of opportunity in the distribution matrix is not the same from person to person.

I would need a week or 2....

You're call Mr. E....    

Cheers Jack...

I'll put in an attempt to break it down in micro summaries and plain language focused on markets, distrubution & opportunities as applied to writers.  (need to get the password for the cloud storage- files again)....

FYI: In the Mgbt's of data & reports from entities like E&Y, PWC, Bloomberg +++, most of this reading is about as exciting as watching paint dry for most people and loaded with jargon that needs its own dictionary. Maybe I can do some incremental summary disclosures, sector specific, in plain language.... (if its Ok with Ewan I can add to his blog here, bit by bit)...(?)...

+ there are some updates in there I haven't read, the research account is still open= added updates & stats.

Explanation- Adding some clarity to this:

Ewan's quote "If one of us succeeds, we all succeed" 

Thats a team player speaking out.- I respect that*. If theres anything any one person can learn here from ABC, that comment nails it. *(Capture that)*. Its the team and the standard, ethics of this platform provided herein and the tireless effort of editors that promote that = 'The Opportunity' 

I'll say it straight out - The literature world is laden with greed, egos, academic arrogance and failures and a lot of inspiring/ aspiring talent is over run -never noticed, weeded out for a number of reasons or even quashed. Quick note from my side of the prism view... The credit, debt, distribution - markets for some name brand publishers & media brands ( controlling market share) in this area, the numbers are not in line. In short, stressed and covered liken to the pre- financial crises in the real-estate markets.....

What that means is; there is allot of opportunity coming (IF) one is prepared for it... if I was risk assessing in a industry analyzing zone- in a forward view, on a time line, some of the cracks in the system is the opportunity now, finding them is not transparent..... Thats just my view based on what I see, not trying to be a Guru here.....

IMO.. ABC plays a critical role in this from a team applied prospective. I am a firm believer that this model has yet to be leveraged to its full potential and presents opportunities that go unnoticed/overlooked.

Macro Market- Snap Shot:

One point that stood out for me in the data, that I plan to take advantage of, termed as; 'content starved markets'. (Both digital & print)...  Given the fact the Common Wealth countries covers a good portion of this, distrubution in English is de-risked at a greater degree, if inserted correctly on regional platforms. & there is a variety of of e-banking Apps that local distributors & book clubs use so the Author gets paid or can see sales in real time. (currency conversion risk is nominal)- let it go & ride with it... its all about distribution #'s... 

*In those emerging markets; no one is going see big money sales and pricing targets liken to established English speaking markets. But... it is sales, & distribution = adds up, market by market, there is relatively less resistance to get noticed or build a fan base for a series or a selection from a single source Author. Hence, cluster content regionally both in Geo & Genre terms'.... < think like  `Content & creating Name Brand` - applies here>....

IMO - In the opportunities metrics here.... I believe that we need to keep an eye on & be aware of AI translation services. Some of these are running in the high 90% accuracy. Labeling a disclosure statement i.e. < Translated from English by AI> is becoming more acceptable to readers in other languages in content starved & emerging markets, factoring in the speed these technologies accelerate at, accuracy only gets better and translating slang & dialects will become more clear (from AI platform to platform, they are not the same, but they are cost effective and fast and pressures allot of so called prestigious and pricey translation services for survival).... In that, the gate keepers to foreign markets are being eroded rapidly.....   

 Again, IMO-personal view-  there is a quality of life ethical literature goal here too. Indie writers exporting their unique work exposing, genres, culture, trends, poetry, ideas etc. Rather than the uniform linear of international publishers and regional Telecom portal control, partnered with major online search engines & social media. Have faith in local entrepreneurs, their passion for literature, books clubs and local news and media platforms looking to add to their libraries. That takes a vision of what your audience is, a picture of the demographics reading your material, and think chic & boutique at a distance.... but the numbers are there are growing.... 

Stripped down to raw laymen speak.... "Sometimes its easier to be a big fish in a small pond" (s).....

If that makes sense............

big fish, small pond makes sense Kris. Thanks for taking the time to go through this. 

Quick Snap Shot (for example)- keep in mind, markets I was addressing =  surge in emerging markets but the Macro trend is same......

Ref:

BookTok

https://newsroom.tiktok.com/en-gb/the-tiktok-bookclub

News:
By Nathaniel Meyersohn, CNN
4 minute read
Updated 2:22 PM EST, Fri February 23, 2024

New York CNN  — 

From Dua Lipa to “silent” book clubs, Millennials and Gen Z are joining book clubs as a way to socialize.

Book club event listings grew 24% in the United States in 2023 from the previous year, according to ticketing platform Eventbrite. Meetup saw a 10% increase in book club listings.

Many of these book clubs are not the stodgy ones of old, however, featuring wine and crackers in a host’s living room. Book club organizers and members are creating new gatherings to talk about books at dating events, breweries and on group runs. Social media is also helping lead younger readers to new genres and in-person communities built around reading. #BookTok was TikTok’s most popular community, outpacing #CarTalk and #MovieTalk.

The growing popularity of book clubs reflects a renewed interest in events and experiences in-person following the isolation of the pandemic, as well as growing fatigue with endless time on screens.

“Book clubs are moving away from someone’s house to meet at different restaurants or as a way to try new places in a city and connect over a book,” said Teri Coan, brand manager at Once Upon a Book Club, a monthly book-subscription box with gifts designed around things mentioned in the book of choice.

Niche book clubs are on the rise. Themed book club events, such as queer book clubs, saw an 82% increase in attendance in 2023, according to Eventbrite, while attendance at silent book clubs increased 23%. Silent book club members gather in public at bars, cafes, bookstores, and libraries simply to read – typically anything they choose.

Eventbrite is also seeing growth in romance book clubs, dating event book clubs and evening book club running groups, such as Read & Run Chicago.

“I have noticed more people talking about creating or joining book clubs in the last two years,” said Ashley Petty, 40, who signed up for a book club for the first time last year in Decatur, Illinois. “Now that we’re a couple years out of the pandemic, I think a lot of people are looking more to get out and rebuild community ties that we couldn’t interact with as much.”

Petty’s book club is organized by the local public library. The club, Books & Brews, meets monthly at a brewery. Around 20 people typically come.

“It’s been really fun,” she said. “Now we’re all very friendly and there are a handful of us that stay after to have a drink and chit-chat.” They are planning to meet up for trivia nights next.

#BookTok

Social media is spurring interest in books and book clubs among younger readers.

The booming #BookTok and #Bookstagram culture on TikTok and Instagram have been credited with introducing younger people to different titles and boosting sales at physical bookstores. Gen-Z favorite Dua Lipa even has a book club. (Her recommendation for February is “A Thousand Splendid Suns,” a novel by by Afghan-American author Khaled Hosseini.)

#BookTok, which people use to describe their reading experiences and look for what to read next, has more than 220 billion views.

Authors can get huge, unexpected boosts from TikTokers discovering their work. Fantasy, romance and young adult novels enjoy especially large BookTok followings, such as “A Court of Thrones and Roses” and “Throne of Glass” series by Sarah J. Maas, the “Shadow and Bone” series by Leigh Bardugo, and emotional romances like “It Ends with Us” by Colleen Hoover. The BookTok effect is so potent that stores like Barnes & Noble keep lists of books that have gone viral on the app.

Print book sales dropped 3% last year, but were still 10% higher than pre-pandemic levels, according to Circana. The book market shrank last year because of lower kids’ book sales.

But adult fiction in the US has grown for five consecutive years, according to Circana.

Teri Coan said that in-person book clubs are emerging from trends on #Bookstagram and other social platforms.

The rise of book clubs also comes as independent bookstores have seen growth in recent years. More than 250 independent shops opened in 2022, the latest year available, according to the American Booksellers Association. Many experienced sales above pre-pandemic levels, according to the organization.

Some experts say anger about the control of Amazon over the book industry — Amazon controls more than half of print book market — is driving some people to shop at local bookstores.

“People are coming back to physical books in a way they didn’t,” Coan said. “Gen Z has beef with Amazon and tries to avoid it whenever possible. That’s what’s driving people to indie book stores.”

Barnes & Noble has also mounted a comeback. The chain expanded in 2023 for the first time in a decade, opening 30 new stores. In 2024, Barnes & Noble plans to open 50 stores.

Note:

Next I will try to get the data on top 3 English launguage emerging markets, book club stats and retailers..... Whats important to realize here is; in emerging markets,  search engines & online shoppers do not operate the same in these areas and there is geo-blocking & geo-redirection, including social media = That is the business. (Thats how the digital gangster business works ;) So a bit of strategic placement is key, including having a vision/idea of what your demographic readers are.

I'll add to that later when I get time.....

Quick Add-On here...

Disclosure: I am in no way offering advice. My intent is to show by research in 'data snap shots', how I arrived at my conclusions, in that, where I see as opportunity, in the genre I write in. (Content, placement, alternative distribution in a set of demographics, Geo location, measuring least barriers to entry) There are risk associated with these emerging markets. IMO, if set-up properly, they remain low.

For example:

My demographics data research- 18yrs+ 65%+ Woman. Median Age 35-55

Genre: Commercial Fiction: Adventure/Romance/Mystery/Thriller.

In my sector content wise= Emerging Markets, India would be the largest market, with Nigeria 2nd. ++++.

Its only after that content = # of sales/distribution, it would become interesting to an established agent or name brand publisher in Western markets.

Over all (Macro) publishing market:

5-year expected annual returns on investment: 3.1%

Pearson plc is the biggest book publishing company in the world, with annual sales of ~$3.4 billion and a market capitalization above $8 billion. Pearson is headquartered in the U.K., and the company was founded in 1944.

Look @ the 5yr chart.....

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=pearson+plc+stock+price

- We stripped out many more +.... The share price is just an example:

(The traditional publishing industry, even with some e- commerce changes and slow to market upgrades is - Anemic) The cost of capital is more expensive & so is the cost or credit. For example we noticed that several large publisher touted their success in emerging growth markets, but the investment vs. rate of return (RoR) was gray. Meanwhile, other regional start-ups were exponentially growing while the Majors spent more time & money = 2 - 3x to acquire a single customer & customer/consumer retention was low.

In short, its takes the majors twice as long and often twice as much money or more, to launch a limited selection while they are burning massive amounts of cash on salaries, prime office space & hiring eComm consultants than selling books or owning their online distribution assets....

Lets take a look at 1 of the hottest emerging English language markets:

The online Nigerian Hobby & Leisure eCommerce-publishing- market is predicted to reach US$647.1 million by 2024 and accounts for 24.1% of the total eCommerce market in Nigeria.The expected compound annual growth rate for the next four years (CAGR 2024-2028) will be 16.8%.

Note* Compared to a forecast (RoR) of 3.1% over 5 yrs for the Macro traditional publishing Market.

It's what we call a <vertical market>... many call it 'Niche', but theres more to it than that......

Market density- 213,4 Mill (2021)

Avg Age: 17.2 years
Nigeria ranks number 6 in the list of countries (and dependencies) by population.

Online-e comm penetration rate = 51.0

Top selling genres: 

a) Mystery/Thriller/Romance - b) Motivational books, religious books on prosperity and marriage

(It goes on from there).......

Online Book retail out lets....

https://thebookmarketng.com/top-8-online-bookstores-in-nigeria/

Final Note:

Each one of these publishing sectors + - 5x growth rate, yoy, than reporting macro markets or major publishers.

Another measurement factored into this is- cash flow velocity, or the speed that money/flows in purchases of this sort. In summery, there are lower price points, high market growth, as cash flow accelerates opening several opportunities (=2) traditional established markets to place content (litrature) products

In summary, this splits the market price points into a kind of 'chic & boutique' and then mass market consumer pricing... there is a sustainable middle ground here. Given the fact that literature placed in any market, over time, erodes price wise there are ways to slow this. My impression is at first glance, specialty poetry = well being, nature, spiritual genres, as gifts, etc. meet that high price point to start and makes sense in that culture, and then, a genre series or an author with a series that can cause a following or fan base, is a good bet- sustainable wise. At some point a single entry is a start.

On the next entry I'll get into Apps, listing, Payment (s) & book clubs....

On a closing note, in my genre, subject/content & demographics here in Europe. The UK is not a growth market for me. It's Germany, Scandinavia, France, Poland... Thats why I'm considering AI translation by a professional service, rather than traditional translator services and then e-comm it....

I also have some data on Asia... there are groups of online media companies that take books, AI translate them & produce animated video series for mobile phone subscribers. Its vast & fast and they're always searching for published content.... In this culture, murder/mystery, action adventure & sex is a least barriers to entry.

More to come later.....

Well: we could take a long hard look at traditional models of story telling in poetry, drama, song and tale telling and view the actuality of a rapidly changing and exchange of narrative environment.  Here, on this site,we have a freedom to share what we may, folk have an option to read as they wish. The only internal "capital" value is a warmth of personal acknowledement, No get rich quick scheme, only acceptance and validation of personal voice. Out there... in the land of pubishing for lucre, there are no obvious pathways to personal authorial nirvana; the print publishing industry appears to be wrestling itself to a standstill as new digital innovation and software emerge. In short, buggered if I know :/

A quick add on ....

Lenchenelf brings up a good point on the blog here....

"the print publishing industry appears to be wrestling itself to a standstill as new digital innovation and software emerge.".....

This weekend I was talking to a friend in Seattle WA: USA... goes without saying, one of the tech centers of the world. He has legal/law background, home office, makes a living in metadata swap contracts, registers companies for clients, etc. and has an addiction to fly fishing.... He told me he had a client that settled out of court with a fairly well known publisher. The reason was, the client, took her written works, had it digitized - text to AI video, chose an AI voice(s) narrated, worked with an AI videographer (animated) and self published it on line in several languages. This made more money than the publisher and paid higher commissions, and turned into a series popular in Asia & Latin America....

The publisher, almost a year later, found out and tried to sue her, claiming they had all publishing rights. In the contract it stated print publishing and media of original story content....

In the first pre-trail hearing, (before the official court case) he argued to have the case thrown out and settle, because the client, simply digitally remastered her content into another format not included in the contract, and, in fact, the story was narrated by a machine as well as the video.

The publisher argued it was published, regardless, and the proceeds should be paid to them and the client gets 17.5 percent, but was willing to renegotiate to higher %.

My friend argued that Taylor Swift & Beyonce' had done the same thing as his client and the record labels had no control.... (end of story)... it never made it to court....

Back to Lenchenelf, he's right... good point/observation*

And... theres an fast moving upcoming industry serving this market and looking for content....

Here a sample of how its done.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTLuH-uRaZ8&t=51s

Next example > This is a text story converted into a trailer using AI. (video books are the new market & they can be multi language, even in local dialect with a point and click.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQoDdZWs78k

On a personal note--- My MS is finished, doing a self edit before I hire an editor... or course I look for an agent, (lucky if I get a publisher), but I'm not going to hold by breath on that...... But self publish, ebook & video story publish, I see it as an investment in myself... & it seems easier to distribute and get paid, less of headache and online distribution possibilities are vast & I'm 90% sure I know my demographics.... IMO....

In the back ground I have some social media whiz-kidz so I can stay focused on what I really want to do.... 1 step at time, but thats the vision..... 

I self published a poetry pamphlet last year, and have had issues with trying to sell on Amazon, I have sold a few to writers I know locally, (in Aberdeen), and have had a small launch event. Not sure how to proceed from here, maybe I just sell them at events I am taking part in. Any help will be much appreciated, Regards Mark